Global markets remained volatile as persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. In Australia, high living costs, elevated fuel prices, weak consumer sentiment, and mortgage stress continue to constrain domestic demand, while the RBA maintains a cautious higher-for-longer policy stance.
Global data point to a softening but still mixed growth backdrop, with US manufacturing in mild contraction contrasted against resilient services activity. Labour indicators such as ADP employment and continuing jobless claims show cooling private hiring and more challenging re‑employment conditions, reinforcing expectations of earlier and deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts. Core US PCE inflation is running at a steady, moderate pace, allowing the Fed to stay on hold while waiting for clearer evidence that inflation is durably converging to the target.
The global macroeconomic backdrop shifted notably in the week ending 28 November 2025, fuelling a renewed "risk-on" sentiment that propelled a decisive recovery in Australian equities. In the United States, softening labour market indicators—specifically an acceleration in weekly ADP job losses—combined with a cooler-than-expected Core PPI reading and dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, led to a sharp repricing of interest rate expectations, with markets now pricing in an ~85% probability of a December cut. This pivot abroad overshadowed sticky domestic inflation data, allowing interest-rate-sensitive growth sectors to lead the S&P/ASX 200 higher, even as uncertainty persists around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path.
The global macroeconomic backdrop shifted notably in the week ending 23 November 2025, contributing to a significant risk-off sentiment that heavily impacted Australian equities. In the United States, a mixed labour market report showing rising unemployment alongside stronger-than-expected job additions, combined with firm Services PMI data and Federal Reserve minutes signalling a delay in rate cuts, led to a repricing of interest rate expectations.
Global markets rallied on hopes of a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown, though the Fed's caution dampened expectations for a December rate cut. In Australia, robust employment data and a resilient labour market have reduced near-term expectations of an RBA rate cut. The ASX posted its weakest week in four months amid sector rotation and global tech selloffs.
