Zip closed FY25 with what we consider a genuine inflection point: a record A$13.1bn in TTV and A$170.3m of group cash EBTDA — a level of profitability that would’ve sounded fanciful 18 months ago. The US arm is now the locomotive of the group, while ANZ has quietly rebuilt its margin spine. Momentum spilled straight into 1Q FY26, with TTV of A$3.9bn and cash EBTDA of A$62.8m, prompting management to hike US TTV guidance and expand the buyback to A$100m.
The global macroeconomic backdrop shifted notably in the week ending 28 November 2025, fuelling a renewed "risk-on" sentiment that propelled a decisive recovery in Australian equities. In the United States, softening labour market indicators—specifically an acceleration in weekly ADP job losses—combined with a cooler-than-expected Core PPI reading and dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, led to a sharp repricing of interest rate expectations, with markets now pricing in an ~85% probability of a December cut. This pivot abroad overshadowed sticky domestic inflation data, allowing interest-rate-sensitive growth sectors to lead the S&P/ASX 200 higher, even as uncertainty persists around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path.
We view Invictus Energy as a rare example of an explorer with a clear pathway to development in one of Africa’s last underexplored rift systems. The Mukuyu gas-condensate discovery in Zimbabwe’s Cabora Bassa Basin anchors the portfolio, while high-impact follow-up at Musuma-1 and a strategic financing partnership with Al Mansour Holdings (AMH) materially de-risk the next stage of value creation.
We see HY2025 as the first genuinely credible step in EVO’s multi-year turnaround. Not a cosmetic clean-up. Not a one-off bounce. A real shift. Occupancy is climbing, labour stability is improving, centre-level margins are widening, and cashflow finally has the shape of something we can underwrite. Management has been making tough decisions — cutting deadweight centres, fixing staffing inconsistencies, and rebuilding trust in local communities — and the P&L now reflects it.
Australia is increasingly important in the global REE supply chain as countries seek alternatives to China’s dominance. Key companies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) are standing out thanks to substantial deposits, processing capability, and strategic supply-chain links. Leading the pack is Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC), which mines the high-grade Mount Weld deposit in WA, has processing facilities outside China and is among the few globally capable of turning ore into refined products. Australia has the raw materials; the companies that control both the mines and the processing stand to benefit most.
We continue to view Accent Group (AX1) as one of the few genuinely scaled, defensible retail platforms in Australia and New Zealand. In a sector where earnings volatility is the norm and brand power often trumps execution, AX1 stands out because it has quietly built a multi-brand ecosystem that gives it pricing control, data-driven consumer reach, and operational leverage that smaller retailers simply cannot replicate.
