Company Overview – 4DMedical Limited (ASX: 4DX)

4DMedical is an Australian medtech company specialising in functional lung imaging, converting standard X-ray and CT scans into dynamic, four-dimensional assessments of respiratory performance.
Its SaaS-based platform enables clinicians to evaluate how lungs function, targeting applications in chronic respiratory disease, oncology, and surgical planning.

Core Products

The company’s flagship XV LVAS® software extracts ventilation data from standard X-rays, while CT-based products (CT LVAS™, CT:VQ™) provide combined ventilation and perfusion analysis.
Complemented by the XV Scanner and AI-driven tools from the Imbio acquisition, 4DMedical is building an integrated lung imaging ecosystem.

Competitive Position

4DMedical’s key advantage lies in delivering functional imaging using existing infrastructure, reducing adoption barriers while enabling earlier disease detection.
However, growth depends on regulatory approvals, reimbursement pathways, and the typically slow adoption curve of new medical technologies.

Company Life Cycle

4DMedical is in the early commercialisation phase, transitioning from R&D and regulatory approvals into revenue growth and market adoption.

Markets & Customers

4DMedical targets global healthcare markets including hospitals, imaging centres, and government screening programs, with a focus on respiratory disease, oncology, and surgical planning.
Its primary customers are clinicians, radiologists, and healthcare systems, particularly in the US and Australia, where adoption is driven by clinical need, reimbursement pathways, and integration into existing workflows.

Revenue Model & Profit Drivers

Revenue is primarily generated through SaaS-based licensing, usage fees per scan, and long-term contracts with healthcare providers and government programs.
Key profit drivers include growth in scan volumes, expansion into new markets (particularly the US), successful reimbursement approvals, and increasing adoption across hospital networks.

Product Pipeline & Commercialisation Probability

XV LVAS® – Early Commercial (High Probability)

XV LVAS® has already received FDA clearance (since 2020) and is being deployed commercially via a SaaS model.
Given regulatory approval and existing reimbursement pathways, the probability of sustained commercialisation is high (~70–80%)

CT:VQ™ – Early Commercial / Breakout Product (Moderate–High Probability)

CT:VQ™ (ventilation + perfusion imaging) received FDA clearance in 2025 and opens a large addressable market with reimbursement potential.
This is arguably the company’s most important product, with moderate-to-high success probability (~60–70%)

CT LVAS™ – Early Commercial Expansion (High Probability)

CT LVAS™ has also received FDA clearance (2023), enabling broader use on widely available CT infrastructure.
This materially increases market accessibility, and the likelihood of commercial success is high (~70%)

Financials

Cash Position and Runway

The company's cash position has plummeted from A$80.9 million in 2021 to just A$6.9 million in 2025—a sharp decline that indicates the company has consumed most of its cash reserves over the past few years.

In the first half of FY2026, the company strengthened its balance sheet through an equity raise, lifting cash reserves to approximately A$60 million.
This materially improves liquidity and extends the cash runway to over 12 months, reducing near-term funding pressure while supporting ongoing commercial expansion.

Last Report overview

CT:VQ – A Scalable Breakthrough Opportunity

CT:VQ has achieved FDA clearance as the first non-contrast, CT-based ventilation–perfusion imaging solution, marking a major commercial milestone.
The product targets a large addressable market US$1.1bn in the US (US$2.6 bn in the World) with over 1 million annual scans, offering meaningful growth potential.
Crucially, compatibility with ~14,500 existing CT scanners enables rapid, capital-light scalability without requiring new infrastructure.

CT:VQ Economics – Higher Revenue Efficiency per Scan

CT:VQ combines a standard non-contrast CT scan (CMS ~$145.85) with an additional reimbursement (~$650.50), resulting in total revenue of roughly ~$796 per procedure.
Compared to traditional nuclear V/Q (~$538 per scan) and significantly longer procedures, CT:VQ offers higher revenue per minute and shorter scan times.
This creates a strong economic incentive for providers to switch, improving throughput while increasing per-scan revenue.

VA Screening Opportunity – Cost Reduction Thesis

4DMedical positions its technology as a cost-effective alternative to invasive biopsy-based diagnostics, highlighting a potential reduction from ~US$120bn to ~US$4bn for large-scale screening of ~4 million veterans.
This represents a policy-driven economic argument rather than a direct revenue opportunity, aimed at accelerating adoption within government-funded healthcare systems.

Capital Structure – Hybrid Financing and Dilution Risk

The A$150m capital raise comprises A$79.1m in new equity and A$70.9m in a block trade of existing shares.

ASX 200 Inclusion Drives Short-Term Demand for 4DMedical

4DMedical Limited’s inclusion in the S&P/ASX 200 is likely to drive short-term demand, as index-tracking funds are required to buy the stock.
It also enhances the company’s profile, increasing institutional attention and analyst coverage.
As a result, trading liquidity should improve, with higher volumes and tighter spreads.
However, the impact is largely short-term, and sustained performance will depend on the company’s underlying fundamentals.

Financial Forecasts

Assuming a total addressable market of ~US$3–5bn (≈A$4.5–7.5bn) across all product lines, a 5% market share would imply annual revenue of roughly A$225–375m.
Given the company’s high gross margins (>90%), a mature operating model could support strong operating leverage, with potential net margins in the range of 20–30% over time.

Earnings Potential

Under this scenario:

Revenue: A$225–375m

Net profit (20–30% margin): A$45–110m

Valuation – Scenario-Based Approach

Applying a reasonable growth multiple of 25–35x earnings (reflecting high-margin, scalable medtech software):

Implied valuation: A$1.1bn – A$3.9bn

With 574 million shares outstanding:

Low case: ~A$1.90 per share

High case: ~A$6.80 per share

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Technical Trend – Uptrend

strong uptrend with price comfortably above both the 50 and 200 EMA. Momentum’s still decent, but RSI’s creeping toward overbought, so wouldn’t be shocked to see a bit of a breather. Volume spikes on the run-up suggest real buying interest, not just hot air. If it holds above that ~$6 level, trend’s intact; lose it and you’re probably looking at a pullback toward the 50 EMA. Overall, still bullish — just a bit stretched in the short term.

FAQs about 4DMedical Limited (ASX: 4DX)

1. Is 4DMedical already profitable?
No, the company remains loss-making with significant cash burn, as it is still in the early commercialisation phase and investing heavily in growth.

2. What is the key driver of future value?
The main driver is the adoption of CT:VQ and related software across US hospitals, particularly whether it can become part of standard clinical workflows.

3. What is the biggest risk for investors?
The primary risk is funding and dilution, as the company may require additional capital before reaching meaningful revenue scale.