The recent surge in global nickel prices, pushing futures to multi-year highs near US$18,000/tonne, has been primarily driven by supply concerns, especially potential production cuts in Indonesia, the world’s dominant nickel producer. Regulatory shifts around mining quotas and export pricing have fueled fear of tighter export availability, which has boosted prices even as inventories remain elevated and demand fundamentals are mixed. Some of the recent gains also reflect speculative flows and broader base-metals momentum rather than a solid demand-supply turnaround. Whether the rally lasts depends on actual supply reductions and stronger nickel demand from EV batteries and stainless steel, not just short-term sentiment. If Indonesia’s output controls hold and global EV battery demand strengthens, prices could stay supported. If not, gains may prove temporary.

The nickel price is on the rise. Why is it rising, and what are the factors?

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Here we show why nickel prices are rising right now:

Supply constraints in the 11 top producers

Indonesia and the Philippines have tightened output through regulatory changes, weather disruption, and higher royalty or quota controls. This limits what gets to market, pushing prices up.

Indonesian quota cuts expected in 2026

Signals from industry groups suggest Indonesia may reduce its production quotas by up to one-third, further tightening the market and supporting higher prices.

Reduced inventories and stockpile movements

Lower stock in key hubs like China has removed some immediate pressure on prices despite ongoing global oversupply forecasts.

Growing demand from EV battery makers

High-nickel batteries for electric vehicles continue to expand demand, as battery chemistries favour greater energy density and range, increasing appetite for nickel raw materials.

Steady stainless-steel consumption

Traditional uses such as stainless-steel production remain a dominant driver of nickel demand and provide baseline support for prices.

Speculative and macro market flows

Broad-based momentum in metals and commodities, along with trading dynamics in LME futures, has contributed to price swings alongside actual physical supply/demand fundamentals.

Best 4 ASX Nickel stocks to invest in now

1. Nickel Industries Limited (ASX: NIC)

Market Capitalisation: $3.97B

Share Price: $0.895

Source: asx.com.au

About the company

Nickel Industries Limited is an ASX-listed mining and processing company with a strong focus on nickel, a metal essential for stainless steel and increasingly for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The company’s roots lie in Indonesia, where it owns controlling interests in several significant assets. These include the Hengjaya nickel mine and multiple rotary kiln electric furnace (RKEF) operations that produce nickel pig iron (NPI) and nickel matte, both essential industrial products.

Unlike some miners that simply dig ore out of the ground, Nickel Industries operates across the value chain: from mining to processing and production, giving it more control over costs and output. In recent years, it has been shifting its production mix from commodity nickel pig iron, primarily for stainless steel, to higher-value products for the EV battery supply chain. To support that transition, the company has expanded interests in high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) projects, including a 44% stake in the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt Project and a 10% stake in the Huayou Nickel Cobalt HPAL project. These assets aim to produce mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and nickel sulphate precursors for lithium-ion batteries.

Headquartered in Sydney with operations centred in Indonesia’s Morowali Industrial Park, Nickel Industries has positioned itself as a key player in the global nickel market. Its geographic focus gives it cost advantages from low-cost Indonesian ore and processing infrastructure, while its strategic pivot to battery-grade nickel targets growth from electrification trends.

Financials

Nickel Industries’ financial picture reflects both its operational scale and the challenges of global nickel markets. Over the last year, revenue has remained substantial but has contracted slightly: the company recorded about USD 1.73 billion in revenue over the 12 months to mid-2025, down roughly 3–4% year-on-year.

Breaking that down further, the half-year ending June 30 2025, showed around USD 829.7 million in revenue, roughly 11% lower than the same period the previous year, illustrating some market softness. Despite this, profit metrics improved: the company posted an operating profit of about USD 98.7 million, up approximately 12% from the year before, and profit after tax surged around 81% to USD 25.3 million, supported by increased production at key mines and strong limonite ore prices.

However, margins remain compressed relative to peers; in H1 FY25, the gross margin was ~13.8%, significantly below industry averages. This reflects both input cost pressures and the business's transitional nature as it moves toward higher-value products.

The company’s earnings profile also shows mix effects: while traditional RKEF operations contributed strongly to EBITDA, the newer HPAL segment, although growing, still lags in margin. Costs related to the construction and commissioning of the Excelsior project have weighed on profits amid volatile nickel prices.

Nickel Industries generates substantial revenue at scale, but profitability is tied closely to commodity prices and the pace at which higher-value battery materials production ramps up.

Outlook

The near-term outlook for Nickel Industries centres on two major themes: project execution and nickel demand dynamics. A key driver is the commissioning of the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt Project, expected in late 2025. Once operational, this plant should boost production volumes and expand the company’s product mix toward battery-relevant materials like MHP, nickel sulphate, and potentially nickel cathode products with higher value than traditional nickel pig iron.

Financial forecasts by market analysts suggest that as Excelsior comes online, revenue growth could resume into 2026 and beyond. Some projections expect nickel sales volumes to rise meaningfully and EBITDA margins to expand as higher-margin products contribute a larger share of total output.

On the demand side, global electrification trends remain supportive. Nickel is crucial for many EV battery chemistries, and strong long-term forecasts for EV sales underpin expectations of sustained demand growth, especially if battery makers continue to prioritise high-nickel cathodes. That could underpin pricing and support the economics of projects like Excelsior.

Risks persist, however. Nickel prices are cyclical and can be sensitive to global steel demand and battery market dynamics. Regulatory or permit changes in Indonesia, a key operating jurisdiction, also create uncertainty, as recent discussions about nickel ore royalty reviews have shown.

The outlook for Nickel Industries is cautiously optimistic. If commissioning milestones are met and the company successfully shifts toward value-added nickel products, it could capture a larger share of the growth in the battery supply chain. However, execution risk and commodity volatility remain key factors that investors should watch closely.

2. IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO)

Market Capitalisation: $6.30B

Share Price: $8.430

Source: asx.com.au

About the company

IGO Limited is a well-established Australian mining and resources company that focuses on metals critical to the global energy transition. Its philosophy is to discover, develop and produce battery-metal commodities that power electrification and renewable technologies.

The company operates key assets in nickel, lithium, copper and cobalt. On the nickel side, IGO owns and operates the Nova underground nickel-copper-cobalt mine in Western Australia. It previously operated the Forrestania nickel project, though it later transitioned to care/maintenance as ore resources dwindled.

In lithium, IGO’s exposure is through a 49% shareholding in Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA), a joint venture with Tianqi Lithium Corporation. TLEA holds a 51 % interest in the world-class Greenbushes Lithium Operation and 100 % ownership of the Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Refinery, both in WA. These assets aim to supply spodumene and lithium-hydroxide, raw materials for EV batteries.

Historically, the company also had exposure to gold and other minerals, but it has been shifting toward clean energy metals as demand for battery materials grows.

Financials

The 2025 financial year was tough for IGO. The company reported a net loss after tax of roughly A$955 million, a sharp reversal from a small profit the year before, driven by significant impairments and market headwinds.

Total revenue fell to about A$528 million, down from A$841 million in FY24, mainly due to lower sales volumes at Nova and subdued pricing in both the nickel and lithium markets.

Underlying EBITDA swung to a loss of around A$43 million from a healthy profit the prior year, reflecting compressed margins and economic pressures. Underlying free cash flow also dropped significantly.

The company’s share of net loss from TLEA, including an impairment of Kwinana refinery assets, contributed most of the headline loss. There were also exploration write-downs and higher rehabilitation provisions for mine sites.

Despite this, IGO ended the year with a solid liquidity position of around A$280 million in cash and undrawn debt facilities, leaving it with some flexibility to navigate short-term challenges.

In recent quarterly updates, the business continued to generate positive contributions from core operations, such as nickel and spodumene sales, though overall performance remains sensitive to global commodity cycles.

Outlook

On nickel, the Nova mine continues to deliver output, though broader market prices have been weak. The company has shifted nickel assets toward cash-maximising operations rather than aggressive expansion.

Diversification across nickel, lithium, copper and cobalt gives IGO some buffer against volatility in any single commodity, but commodity prices will strongly influence earnings in the near term.

Analyst forecasts suggest that lithium prices could head higher over the next few years, which would benefit IGO’s lithium exposure and overall cash flow, and recent broker updates have lifted price targets for battery metals producers.

Yet the balance of near-term risk versus reward hinges on successful improvements at the Kwinana plant, on stabilising railroad contracts, and on commodity price cycles. Operational execution in these areas will determine whether the IGO emerges from its current downturn into robust growth territory.

IGO remains a major player in battery metals, with world-class assets and a diversified portfolio. Its short-term financial picture is weak, but the company’s asset quality and strategic focus position it to benefit if lithium and nickel markets recover and operational performance improves.

3. Centaurus Metals Limited (ASX: CTM)

Market Capitalisation: $349.18M

Share Price: $0.565

Source: asx.com.au

About the company

Centaurus acquired Jaguar from Vale in 2020 and has since advanced it through drilling, engineering studies, and project optimisation work, known as the Jaguar Value Engineering Process (JVEP). This work has produced improved resource estimates and favourable economics in early studies, including a sizeable ore reserve and attractive projected cash flows if mining proceeds.

In addition to Jaguar, Centaurus holds exposure to other Brazilian mineral assets, such as the Boi Novo copper-gold project and the Jambreiro iron-ore project, as part of a broader strategy to diversify into other critical mineral sectors.

The company emphasises ESG performance and low environmental impact, aiming to deliver responsible, low-carbon nickel production for battery supply chains.

Centaurus is headquartered in West Perth, with operations and project offices in Brazil, reflecting its focus on international resource development in a key mining jurisdiction.

Financials

Centaurus Metals is still pre-production, meaning it hasn’t yet generated significant revenue from mining operations. As a result, traditional revenue figures are limited or absent, and financial performance is primarily driven by exploration and development expenses.

According to recent market data, Centaurus’s market capitalisation is around A$350 million, and its share price has fluctuated significantly over the past year, a common feature among junior development miners. The company’s earnings metrics show a net loss over the trailing twelve months (approximately A$19.45 million) and negative earnings per share, which is typical for companies in the build-out phase.

Operating expenses mainly relate to exploration, drilling, feasibility work and project optimisation at Jaguar and other assets. There is effectively no recurring revenue reported while production remains targeted for future years.

Centaurus has been raising capital through institutional placements, such as a recent A$20 million placement in mid-2025 to fund development work and exploration programs, a sign that experienced investors are willing to support its growth plans.

On the balance sheet side, junior explorers like Centaurus often carry relatively modest assets and some liabilities, with cash reserves sourced from equity raises. The exact cash figure can fluctuate after funding rounds and exploration spending.

Centaurus is not yet a profitable business; it’s investing its capital in advancing Jaguar and other resource projects, with financial performance dominated by development costs rather than mining revenues.

Outlook

The near- and mid-term future for Centaurus Metals revolves around advancing the Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project toward a Final Investment Decision (FID) and, ultimately, production. The company has targeted completing the project funding package and final engineering approvals by the first half of 2026, which would be a significant milestone on the path to becoming a producing nickel miner.

Economically, Jaguar is being shaped into a low-capex, long-life operation with first-quartile production costs, which could help it remain profitable even if nickel prices are volatile. Early studies suggest solid projected cash flows over the mine's life and attractive returns once production ramps up.

Outlook catalysts include further strategic partnering and offtake arrangements, which are part of the company’s funding process. Securing such partners could de-risk financing and provide market access for future nickel concentrate production.

Beyond Jaguar, ongoing exploration at the Boi Novo copper project and opportunities at Jambreiro could add optionality to the company’s growth strategy, broadening its exposure beyond nickel and enhancing long-term value.

Broader nickel market dynamics also play a key role: demand from the electric vehicle and battery sectors remains a structural driver for high-grade nickel sulphide producers. If nickel prices recover or strengthen, Centaurus’s project economics could improve further.

Risks remain, including execution delays, funding challenges, and commodity price volatility. Still, if Centaurus secures project finance and hits key milestones, it could transform from an explorer into a producer with solid exposure to the global battery metals supply chain.

4. Ardea Resources Ltd (ASX: ARL)

Market Capitalisation: $147.56M

Share Price: $0.690

Source: asx.com.au

About the company

Ardea was established in 2016 and grew out of Heron Resources with a mission to advance large-scale nickel and cobalt development. Its tenements spread across the Eastern Goldfields around Kalgoorlie and include targets for nickel, cobalt, scandium, rare earths, lithium, and gold, highlighting a broader strategy to capture value from multiple critical minerals.

The company’s base project, Goongarrie Hub, aims to deliver high-grade nickel and cobalt products for global battery supply chains, particularly for electric vehicles and energy storage. A key part of Ardea’s development strategy is the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the project, funded in collaboration with Japanese partners, Sumitomo Metal Mining and Mitsubishi Corporation, under a structured joint venture.

Ardea operates from West Perth and emphasises ESG (environmental, social and governance) credentials, exporting responsibly sourced nickel and cobalt from an established mining jurisdiction.

Financials

Ardea remains predominantly a development and exploration company, meaning it is not yet a significant nickel producer at scale and therefore doesn’t generate large operational revenues like established miners. For the fiscal year to June 2025, the company reported about A$3.68 million in revenue, up sharply from the prior year, driven by early sales and project-related income as it advances its core project.

Despite that growth, Ardea reported a net loss of around A$3.26 million over the same period. Losses are typical for firms in this phase, as most cash flow goes towards feasibility studies, drilling, engineering work, and advancing the Kalgoorlie Nickel Project rather than generating profit.

On the balance sheet side, recent quarterly reports show that Ardea holds around A$15.5 million in cash and no debt, giving it a healthier runway than some peers and reducing the pressure to raise equity at depressed valuations. This cash position was supported by placements, including a recent A$4.6 million raise with Sumitomo Metal Mining at a premium to market price.

Ardea’s financials reflect a typical development miner: modest revenues, controlled losses, working cash reserves, and heavy reinvestment into advancing its flagship project.

Outlook

The outlook for Ardea Resources is primarily tied to the progress of the Kalgoorlie Nickel Project (KNP) and the Oongarrie Hu, and to the project's transition from feasibility studies to construction and production. The ongoing Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), jointly funded with Japanese partners Sumitomo Metal Mining and Mitsubishi Corporation, is a key catalyst. Completion of this DFS, expected early 2026, will set the stage for a Final Investment Decision (FID) and potential project financing.

Strategically, the company benefits from its location in Western Australia, a stable, ESG-friendly jurisdiction, and the backing of experienced partners who bring technical expertise and capital. This reduces some execution risk compared with small juniors attempting to go it alone.

However, there are clear risks: securing full development funding, commodity price volatility (especially nickel), and navigating environmental approvals. Even with DFS success, production would still be several years away, meaning investors should view Ardea as a long-term development play rather than a near-term dividend generator.

If Ardea successfully transitions from DFS to construction and eventually to nickel/cobalt production, it could emerge as an essential supplier in the battery metals market. Still, that outcome hinges on execution, funding and broader market conditions.